Dominic Sitowski, CEP, LUTCF

CHINA, JAPAN AND OUR DEBT

Will other countries keep buying our Treasuries?

provided by Dominic Sitowski, CEP, LUTCF

If China and Japan change their minds, could the United States have a problem? Since 1980, the U.S. has imported more than it has exported.¹ It makes up for this trade deficit by issuing Treasury bonds and other debt instruments. Foreign governments have long lined up to buy them.

China holds almost $800 billion of U.S. Treasuries. That’s the April 2009 figure from the U.S. Treasury (at this moment, the most recent data). In addition, Japan has $686 billion in Treasuries. Hong Kong has $81 billion, Taiwan $78 billion, Singapore $40 billion, India $39 billion, and South Korea $35 billion. Away from Asia, Great Britain holds $153 billion, Russia holds $137 billion, and Brazil holds $126 billion. ² U.S. Treasury bonds offer these institutional investors some stability in uncertain times.

Are China and Japan wary of buying more? Earlier in the decade, China, Japan and other nations readily bought Treasuries. From 2004-2008, China spent as much as 14% of its GDP on the purchase of foreign debt – mostly American debt.³

What happened as a result? China, Japan and other creditor countries got a nice return on their investment and a strong export market. We got to buy inexpensive imports. This kept the dollar strong and interest rates low.

Now we have two problems that could potentially sour this relationship. The economies of China, Japan and other countries have suffered along with ours in the global recession. Moreover, the U.S. has run up a huge budget deficit to accompany its trade deficit. Our President is on record as saying that we may have trillion-dollar deficits for “years to come.”

Under these conditions, China and Japan are naturally getting leery of holding so much American debt (especially when the Federal Reserve is printing money to buy it). China needs to pay for its own $600 billion stimulus package, and Japan announced a $154 billion stimulus in April. Tax revenues in both economies have declined with the recession. Government regulators in China have ordered banks to direct money this year to local governments and small- and medium-sized businesses. All this means China and Japan aren’t as eager for dollars and Treasuries as they were a few years ago.^3,4

What if other nations stop buying our debt? There are three potential side effects. One, interest rates would likely increase as there would be fewer buyers for Treasuries. Two, the dollar could weaken. Three, long-term bond prices could fall.

Voices on the fringe worry about a scenario in which the central banks of China, Japan and other nations jettison dollars en masse or abruptly quit buying U.S. debt. Realistically, the odds of something like this happening are slim. These countries would have nothing to gain by stifling America’s chances for economic recovery, and these decisions would greatly harm the world economy.  

Now for some good news. In May, our trade deficit fell to its lowest level since November 1999. It shrank 9.8% in May from April levels, defying analysts’ expectations – and offering a hint of economic recovery. Our deficit with China increased by $4.4 billion for May, but the 2009 increase is 12.6% under last year’s pace. The U.S. deficit with Japan reduced to its lowest level in more than 20 years last month.⁵

More good news. Domestic and foreign demand for Treasuries is still strong – in its auction in the first full week of July, the Treasury quickly sold $19 billion of 10-year notes, with Treasury yields hitting 6½-week lows.⁶ At least in the short term, it appears the government doesn’t have to struggle for buyers to fund its reforms and rescue efforts.

Dominic Sitowski is a Representative with Crown Capital, L.P. and may be reached at www.domsitowski.com, 503-496-3641 or dsitowski@crownmail.net.

These are the views of Peter Montoya Inc., not the named Representative nor Broker/Dealer, and should not be construed as investment advice. Neither the named Representative nor Broker/Dealer gives tax or legal advice. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If other expert assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. Please consult your Financial Advisor for further information.

Citations.

¹ moneycentral.msn.com/content/invest/extra/P140049.asp [1/5/06]

² treas.gov/tic/mfh.txt [6/15/09]

³ nytimes.com/2009/01/08/business/worldbusiness/08yuan.html [1/8/09]

⁴ nytimes.com/2009/04/09/business/global/09yen.html                [4/9/09]

⁵ finance.yahoo.com/news/May-trade-deficit-apf-2840686452.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=6&asset=&ccode= [7/10/09]

⁶ forbes.com/feeds/reuters/2009/07/08/2009-07-08T205823Z_01_N08405527_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-GLOBAL-WRAPUP-6.html              [7/8/09]

THE BIG ROLLOVER

What should you do with that old 401(k)?

Presented by Dominic Sitowski, CEP, LUTCF

Options, options, options … There are many misconceptions about what must be done with a 401(k) when someone leaves a company. Some people think they have to cash out their 401(k) upon leaving a job. Others think they must “roll it over” into a new 401(k). Still others believe that they must leave the 401(k) where it is. None of these are true … and none are false. These aren’t “musts”, they are options. The big question is, which option is the right option for YOU?

Leaving it where it is … If you have enough money in your current 401(k) to meet the minimum requirement, you could leave your money where it is. Should you? Well, it depends. If you feel the plan has good investment choices and the annual fees are reasonable, leaving your money there to mature could be a good option for you.

Direct rollover into a new 401(k) … If your new employer offers a 401(k), you could choose to “roll” your money into that plan, but then you will be limited to the new plan’s investment options. So should you? Once again, it depends. You’ll want to look into the structure of the new plan, the fees and the investment options.

Moving the money into an IRA rollover account… If managing where your account is held and how it is invested is important to you, this option gives you a great deal of flexibility. It also offers you more distribution options, once you are eligible. Additionally, you could open a brokerage account or purchase a CD, provided the account is titled as your IRA Rollover Account.

Cashing out your 401(k) … The temptation to get a lump sum of money can be too great for some, especially if they have just lost their job or feel that they are in some sort of financial bind. They may choose to cash out their 401(k) upon leaving a job. But what are they giving up? Well, 10% for starters. If they are younger than 59 ½ years old and cash out their 401(k), most of them will incur a 10% penalty. Additionally, they will owe taxes on the amount they cash out. But here’s what really hurts: they are giving up part of their retirement fund or (in many cases) starting over from zero.

Fighting temptation now could lead to big rewards later … For example, let’s say a 35-year-old leaves a job and rolls over $15,000 from a 401(k) into an IRA earning an average of 7% annually, letting the money mature over 30 years … by the time of retirement, that money could potentially grow to over $100,000.

Making a decision … If you’re unsure which choice is best for you, or if you’d like to learn more about your options, I would recommend speaking with a qualified financial advisor. Additionally, you may want to consider working with a tax professional if you own company stock in your previous 401(k). You’re likely to want some assistance in sorting through the IRS rules that may apply.

Dominic Sitowski is a Representative with Crown Capital Securities, L.P. and may be reached at www.domsitowski.com, 503-494-3641 or dsitowski@crownmail.net

These views are those of the author and should not be construed as investment advice. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. Please consult your Financial Advisor for further information. Securities offered through Crown Capital Securities, L.P., Member FINRA/SIPC.

You go to work and get the word … you’re being laid off. Maybe it’s no surprise. Maybe it comes as a shock. The question becomes: what now?

Basically, you have three quick to-dos: leaving work with as much money as possible, securing health insurance for the interim, and arranging unemployment benefits. Beyond these items, stay calm and stay in the hunt – or alternatively, work for yourself.

Negotiate your exit. While no law requires your employer to give you a severance package, some employers do provide them.1 Severance package or not, you may very well receive two weeks pay and perhaps compensation for unused vacation or sick days.

Don’t be meek here. If you’ve been a key employee or simply a good employee, make the case for your company to extend your health coverage a little longer or give you a true severance package. They may see the merit if you have proven yours.

In tax terms, it may be better to receive your severance pay in the form of recurring checks rather than a lump sum. If you get a lump sum, it’s quite possible you could have too much withheld.

If you know you are getting laid off in the next few months, you can request to reduce the amount of withholding taxes on your last few paychecks to give yourself more take-home pay. And if it looks like you are going to receive a lump sum severance before December 31, think about deferring that payment until 2010 so you don’t have to include it on your 2009 tax return.

Keep yourself insured. If you can sign up as a spouse for the plan offered by your spouse’s employer, it makes sense to do it as soon as you can. If that doesn’t describe your situation, then the options are extending coverage through COBRA or keeping up the payments on private life or disability insurance that your company provided.

If you sign up for COBRA at the moment, the federal government will subsidize 65% of the cost for nine months as a result of the federal stimulus. In COBRA, you will have to pay the entire premium on your health insurance plus a 2% administrative fee.1

Sign up for unemployment benefits. As few of us have bank accounts equal to six months or a year of salary, it is wise (not demeaning) to sign up for these benefits. You will want to do so ASAP, because it may take a few weeks for that first check to arrive. In some states, you can receive unemployment checks even if you have been given a severance package – although you may have to wait until the entirety of the severance is issued to you before jobless benefits can follow.1

Remember that the federal government is pulling out all the stops right now. Take advantage of the federal economic stimulus effort, which is directing $500 million toward helping the jobless find jobs. New search assistance, education, and retraining programs are available. The government is also boosting unemployment payments a bit and elongating parameters of eligibility. Currently, the average weekly unemployment check in America is about $300. Jobseekers can receive unemployment benefits for up to 46 weeks – up to 59 weeks in states where the unemployment rate tops 6% for more than three months in a row, which would be just about everywhere right now. Under the stimulus, weekly unemployment checks will increase by $20 – and the first $2,400 of unemployment payments will be tax-exempt.1

Press flesh, not just keys. Despite the buzz surrounding job boards like Monster.com, Dice.com and CareerBuilder.com, an article this winter in the San Francisco Chronicle noted that only about 2-3% of new hires find their jobs through such resources. About 15% of new hires find work directly by applying at a company’s web site, and about 65% find new jobs through that old standby – networking.2

Older employees may actually cope with layoffs better. That’s what a collaborative study coming from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and Columbia University has just concluded. It found that laid-off workers younger than 55 experience a much greater increase in “mortality hazards” than their older counterparts – stress and health risks, addictions, and negative personal behaviors. Perhaps this is because workers over 55 are somewhat less likely to deal with making ends meet and the pressures of raising a family; they may have already thought about (and planned for) a retirement transition and they have the options of Medicare and Social Security now or in the near future.3

Have you been given a gift? That’s one way to look at it: one door closes, another opens. If you have an entrepreneurial ambition, or just suspect that like many Americans you will one day have to be your own boss, then maybe now is the time to talk over your options with a potential mentor – a friend who owns a business or makes a living as an independent professional in your industry. If you are mature and want or need to keep working, you might even think about a life or career coach – someone who can help you see the full range of possibilities, including those that you may not have considered five or ten years ago.

Dominic Sitowski is a Representative with Crown Capital, LP and may be reached at domsitowski.com, 503-496-3641 or dsitowski@crownmail.net.

These are the views of Peter Montoya Inc., not the named Representative nor Broker/Dealer, and should not be construed as investment advice. Neither the named Representative nor Broker/Dealer gives tax or legal advice. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If other expert assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. Please consult your Financial Advisor for further information. Securities offered through Crown Capital Securities, L.P., a Registered Investment Advisor. Member FINRA/SIPC.

Citations.

1 smartmoney.com/personal-finance/employment/4-ways-to-survive-a-layoff/ [7/2/09]
2 sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/12/20/BU2914Q1JE.DTL [12/20/08]
3 usnews.com/blogs/the-inside-job/2009/07/01/the-correlation-between-health-employment-and-layoff-fears.html [7/1/09]